I recognize a couple of those flies vans! Hah...you must have snapped that at the orvis store. Lots of good carp patterns out there, but like any fish, it really comes down to forage. Figure out what the primary forage in your lake is, and you can bet the carp will be eating that. When in doubt, smallish nymph patterns work well...San Juan worms and this variation (the trouser worm by my buddy Mctage) are good to me as well:
Find out the forage and imitate that...you will be in business.