This is prompted by a thread about buying flies...which is something that I can't even comprehend
I don't know about y'all but a good percentage of my flies are tied when I get home after fishing and have thought a great deal about the flies that I should
have had instead of the ones I was using.. ...
Can you do that when you "buy' ?
But anyway, back to the subject of the post
please help me with my "formulas" if you think that I'm off base
Say you're going on a trout fishing trip and you're going to be fishing all day, every day for about one week. We'll call that 6 days time.
In my mind you can count on loosing 6 flies a day and that could be many more than this or it could be less, but I'm think 6 is a good average, so we'll count on having an absolute minimum of one fly of each kind to loose per day
Now, lets say that you personally have 10 flies that you consider essentials. For many people it might be more, but 10 is almost a given. (60)
You've done your homework and you're thinking that there's only (and this is a very conservative number) 6 bugs that you may encounter, plus two types of minnows.
So conservatively, so far you're got 18 flies that you need to carry in numbers.
Now take into consideration each of your identified bugs has different stages. Your "essential" flies are going to cover a lot of these bases, but you're going to need to fill in the holes.
You got nymphs, emergers, cripples, no-hackles (or sparkle duns) parachutes, full hackled flies... for 6 different bugs. You wouldn't need to cover all the bases here but if you did that would be..... (< 218)
Plus the minnows in a couple of sizes anyway.... adult and immature... big and little (24)
Now the hard part, how do you factor in what you'll use and what you'll loose ? ...
The only way is to have everything (and this is only for 6 days)
Even if you're going to go with just 6 of each and count on not fishing (and loosing ) the same fly every day that's... OMG