Coronavirus and the travelling angler

Matt4.0

Well-known member
Messages
1,335
Reaction score
48
Location
Evergreen, CO
probably, but most likely someone you love or care about wont.
here are the epidemiological predictions put out by american hospital association for the USA for the next 2 months if it goes unchecked as Phillips suggests...

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths
Do you have a source for this? A (admittedly brief) glance at the AHA’s website shows nothing along those lines. And I would think if the AHA or any reputable source put out those sort of predictions the alarmist major news networks would be all over it.
 

okaloosa

Well-known member
Messages
747
Reaction score
73
Location
CO
Do you have a source for this? A (admittedly brief) glance at the AHA’s website shows nothing along those lines. And I would think if the AHA or any reputable source put out those sort of predictions the alarmist major news networks would be all over it.
Matt , you may be correct....I also tried to substantiate it from AHA website....the AHA emblem was present on the projected data and the link was sent to me by a medical student....
the RO of covid-19 is somewhere around 2.5 to 5...that means each person will give it to 2,5 others ore more in about a week..
there are 500 cases in USA today...that means in just 8 weeks the number in the USA could reach over 750,000 people...and close to 2 million in 9 weeks....5 million in 10 weeks etc etc..
hopefully none of this will happen, but people should be prepared,,,


covid.jpg
 

Ard

Administrator
Messages
19,518
Reaction score
569
Location
Wasilla / Skwentna, Alaska
The mortaility rate for the 70-80 year old group is close to 80% (it's trivial for those, say, under 40). It's higher if you have an underlying medical condition, and higher if you're a male. I'm 68, have type-2 diabetes, and I'm a male.

I'm avoiding crowds and not travelling on a plane until I see how things pan out.
I live a very isolated life style and have a backup plan to go with.........





75 miles from anything and I'm making a resupply run this week again. I don't know if it would kill me or not but if it shows up in Anchorage in a big way I may go for a while.

The post about being more worried about the health of the economy than your own health.............. Wait until you are closing the gap on 70 then talk to me about that. I'm healthy, don't take a single medication and live an active life but I am more worried about my life than the economy whatever that is......
 

yikes

Well-known member
Messages
2,098
Reaction score
46
Location
So Cal
It's worth pointing out that the CFR data is currently based in large measure on fatalities in China, which are primarily older men - - which is the demographic with the highest % of long-term smokers in that society. I think that's significant, given that the most serious problem from Covid-19 is pneumonia.

My own prediction (which counts for nothing) that the CFR stats will drop significantly as the virus spreads to populations with a lower % of older smokers.
 

yikes

Well-known member
Messages
2,098
Reaction score
46
Location
So Cal
It's worth pointing out that the CFR data is currently based in large measure on fatalities in China, which are primarily older men - - which is the demographic with the highest % of long-term smokers in that society. I think that's significant, given that the most serious problem from Covid-19 is pneumonia.

My own prediction (which counts for nothing) that the CFR stats will drop significantly as the virus spreads to populations with a lower % of older smokers.
 

okaloosa

Well-known member
Messages
747
Reaction score
73
Location
CO
It's worth pointing out that the CFR data is currently based in large measure on fatalities in China, which are primarily older men - - which is the demographic with the highest % of long-term smokers in that society. I think that's significant, given that the most serious problem from Covid-19 is pneumonia.

My own prediction (which counts for nothing) that the CFR stats will drop significantly as the virus spreads to populations with a lower % of older smokers.
certainly that is the hope.
I have to laugh at some who are so cavalier about covid-19 and proclaim they are not afraid, their immune system is fine, they will travel anywhere they want and to hell with precautions.
the whole idea is to buy time so that a treatment and/or vaccine can be developed. surely almost everyone of these non concerned people have loved ones with high odds risk such as over age 60, heart disease, COPD, cancer etc .
amazing how WW1, WW2, Korean War, and Vietnam War are tiny blips on the life expectancy graph compared to the Spanish Flu. certainly, this is no Spanish Flu but keep in mind the regular flu alone kills almost as many in the USA yearly as Americans killed over 10 years in the Vietnam War.

life_expectancy_us_pandemic_flu.jpg
 

yikes

Well-known member
Messages
2,098
Reaction score
46
Location
So Cal
Over the holidays, I read Bill Bryson's book, The Body: A Guide For Occupants. Excerpt:

"For years, Britain operated a research facility called the Common Cold Unit, but it closed in 1989 without ever finding a cure. It did, however, conduct some interesting experiments. In one, a volunteer was fitted with a device that leaked a thin fluid at his nostrils at the same rate that a runny nose would. The volunteer then socialized with other volunteers, as if at a cocktail party. Unknown to any of them, the fluid contained a dye visible only under ultraviolet light. When that was switched on after they had been mingling for a while, the participants were astounded to discover that the dye was everywhere—on the hands, head, and upper body of every participant and on glasses, doorknobs, sofa cushions, bowls of nuts, you name it. The average adult touches his face sixteen times an hour, and each of those touches transferred the pretend pathogen from nose to snack bowl to innocent third party to doorknob to innocent fourth party and so on until pretty much everyone and everything bore a festive glow of imaginary snot.

In a similar study at the University of Arizona, researchers infected the metal door handle to an office building and found it took only about four hours for the “virus” to spread through the entire building, infecting over half of employees and turning up on virtually every shared device like photocopiers and coffee machines. In the real world, such infestations can stay active for up to three days. Surprisingly, the least effective way to spread germs (according to yet another study) is kissing. It proved almost wholly ineffective among volunteers at the University of Wisconsin who had been successfully infected with cold virus. Sneezes and coughs weren’t much better. The only really reliable way to transfer cold germs is physically by touch."
 

hatidua

Well-known member
Messages
341
Reaction score
94
Location
colorado
I live a very isolated life style and have a backup plan to go with.........





75 miles from anything and I'm making a resupply run this week again. I don't know if it would kill me or not but if it shows up in Anchorage in a big way I may go for a while.

The post about being more worried about the health of the economy than your own health.............. Wait until you are closing the gap on 70 then talk to me about that. I'm healthy, don't take a single medication and live an active life but I am more worried about my life than the economy whatever that is......
Very cool, you win!
 

denver1911

Well-known member
Messages
835
Reaction score
44
certainly that is the hope.
I have to laugh at some who are so cavalier about covid-19 and proclaim they are not afraid, their immune system is fine, they will travel anywhere they want and to hell with precautions.
the whole idea is to buy time so that a treatment and/or vaccine can be developed. surely almost everyone of these non concerned people have loved ones with high odds risk such as over age 60, heart disease, COPD, cancer etc .
amazing how WW1, WW2, Korean War, and Vietnam War are tiny blips on the life expectancy graph compared to the Spanish Flu. certainly, this is no Spanish Flu but keep in mind the regular flu alone kills almost as many in the USA yearly as Americans killed over 10 years in the Vietnam War.

View attachment 21638
I agree wirh most that we don’t need to blow this thing out of proportion, but where do you meet these people you describe? Most folks I know are remaining calm, but also washing hands, not travelling to China, Italy, Washington State, etc.
 

okaloosa

Well-known member
Messages
747
Reaction score
73
Location
CO
I agree wirh most that we don’t need to blow this thing out of proportion, but where do you meet these people you describe? Most folks I know are remaining calm, but also washing hands, not travelling to China, Italy, Washington State, etc.

denver1911....drive an hour south and I will introduce you to them in Colorado Springs.....a lot are the same young people who do not get flu shots....do you not remember when you were young and felt
invincible? I do ;)
 

karstopo

Well-known member
Messages
2,797
Reaction score
45
Location
Brazoria County, SE Texas
If everyone could miraculously hole up away from other people for a few weeks, then this Covid-19 might just disappear. Given that that is impossible and given it really isn’t feasible or practical to contain something that’s invisible and already in the community and behaves much like the common cold or the flu, you take steps that you do for those more well known and understood diseases. Wash hands, all the stuff about touching door knobs and faces, it’s all well known to help prevent the spread of those diseases and it will help with Covid-19.

Then you hope and there’s no reason to believe otherwise that it behaves like other Coronaviruses in the past and fades away in summer.

Worst thing is to stop doing all the vital things that a functioning society needs to do such as delivering supplies, making stuff, fixing things, going to work, spending money that supports jobs and people, etc.

Kill or so damage the economy by restricting movement, implementation of long work stoppages, wide scale quarantines, etc. and you still won’t stop the disease and you will have a whole host of additional problems and calamities to face and try to deal with, albeit from a much weaker and disorganized position.

The cure can definitely be worse than the disease and not even be a cure. 2-9 in life. Measured response, not wide scale panic.

People are going to die, mostly sick and elderly, but that’s true for the flu and the flu also gets the young at times whereas Covid-19 apparently spares that segment.

A goal of zero or near zero deaths from this isn’t realistic and trying for that at all costs, including sacrificing freedom of movement and freedom of commerce, won’t work and will create so many more problems. That’s the road some suggest and I say it’s misguided and foolish and overall more dangerous to the culture at large.
 

denver1911

Well-known member
Messages
835
Reaction score
44
denver1911....drive an hour south and I will introduce you to them in Colorado Springs.....a lot are the same young people who do not get flu shots....do you not remember when you were young and felt
invincible? I do ;)
If I drive about an hour south, I’ll be deep in hillbilly country. And I’m glad you remember when I was young and felt invincible. That aside, do these people really feel that way? They are eschewing advice not to travel to China and Italy? And they are unwilling to wash their hands? Wow! Glad I don’t live there.
 

Ard

Administrator
Messages
19,518
Reaction score
569
Location
Wasilla / Skwentna, Alaska
For my money Karstopo has nailed the thinking in each of his responses to this topic. The cabin? Yeah it's a major pain taking care of a second home sort of place so far off the grid but I / we could easily hold out there for quite some time. I always knew that in case of a Zombie apocalypse it would make a good hideout :)
 

losthwy

Well-known member
Messages
591
Reaction score
44
Location
Currently Westminster, Co. Headed to "West Slope"
This from CNN today.
"Ninety-seven people have died of the novel coronavirus since Sunday in Italy, bringing its total number of deaths to 463. The country has 9,172 cases so far, the most of any European country.

Italy prohibits travel and cancels all public events in its northern region to contain coronavirus
Over the weekend, blanket travel restrictions were announced in just certain areas. The rest of the country will now join the northern provinces under lockdown -- one of the toughest responses implemented outside of mainland China to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control.
The coordinator for intensive care in the crisis unit for the northern Lombardy region told CNN that Lombardy's health care system was "one step from collapse" despite efforts to free up hospital beds.
"We are now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors," Antonio Pesenti said. "We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people."
He described seeing "a tsunami of patients," adding that there could be 18,000 patients in hospital by the end of the month if the virus continues to spread."
No one under the age of 19 has died from this.
Seems the older you are, especially if you have health problems, the deadlier it becomes.
 

denver1911

Well-known member
Messages
835
Reaction score
44
For my money Karstopo has nailed the thinking in each of his responses to this topic. The cabin? Yeah it's a major pain taking care of a second home sort of place so far off the grid but I / we could easily hold out there for quite some time. I always knew that in case of a Zombie apocalypse it would make a good hideout :)
Yeah, but I don’t see him saying he’s willing to travel to China or Italy and he could care less about doing things, like proper hygiene that helps control the spread.
 

karstopo

Well-known member
Messages
2,797
Reaction score
45
Location
Brazoria County, SE Texas
I’m all for doing good hygiene.

This Covid-19 never would have happened if China didn’t have those filthy “wet” markets the Chinese seem to favor, live wild and domestic animals all co-mingling in absolute disgusting conditions then getting killed and butchered on the spot.

Change your behavior if necessary, follow good hygiene practices, stay abreast of developments, keep your head. This is a constantly changing situation. No one understands exactly why one place is being hit harder than others.

I don’t want anyone to get sick and die from this. I also don’t want to bring the world’s economy to its knees. I’m not sure how it all gets reconciled.
 

Southerncaster

Well-known member
Messages
53
Reaction score
4
Location
South Carolina
I'm certainly very concerned about it all. I'll be 68 a week from today with a history of heart disease, and I also take care of my 90 year old mother who has multiple disabilities. And my life is more important to me than the economy, too, although the two are certainly connected in more ways than I'm fully aware of. Several people in my area are ill with or have been tested positive for Coronavirus and at least a couple of them have been put in local hospitals close by. It's just the beginning in this country and will undoubtedly blow up much bigger everywhere before we're even close to a vaccine, despite any containment efforts. The phrase "Oh, to be young again" has new meaning.

At least one of the problems I see with contracting the virus is that I still have a lot of fishing I need to do and I don't think I'm allowed to take any fly gear over to the other side... which is a shame because I understand waders won't be necessary.
 

hatidua

Well-known member
Messages
341
Reaction score
94
Location
colorado
One aspect of this situation is the potential lack of control we have over our own movement once we are out of the country. In our own neighborhoods we have a certain level of freedom and normalcy. Imagine turning the clock back a few weeks and opting for a vacation to Italy and then while you are sitting in a little cafe having dinner you learn that the entire country is essentially in lock-down. Now how do you easily get back to your peachy American life?

Right now we know that countries X, Y, and Z are problematic but we are (to paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld) unaware of the upcoming events we are unaware of: the unknown unknowns. What if Belize goes the way of Italy while I'm knee deep on a falling tide watching permit tails approach?" Just hang out for an extra month and drown in Belikin until things improve?

I'm hoping this whole thing is simply hyped more than some of the past viral incidents due to how interconnected we all are to media/news outlets. That said, even if it's a complete nothingburger I'm not sure the local restaurants where I'd eat on a trip will have any food left if people keep stripping market shelves empty.

There is light at the end of the proverbial tunnel though, the half the glass that remains full: Spring is just weeks away in Wyoming and I'll be knee deep in the North Platte, many hours from the closest Belikin :D. .....I hope.
 
Top